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San Francisco, USA

 

Where Are We With Vaccination

San Francisco’s COVID vaccine effort continues at a brisk pace. Today, 56% of adults have already received at least one shot of vaccine. How much longer does it take to vaccinate 80% of adults? At the current pace of 12.6k vaccination per day, it will take 15 more days. April 26th is the earliest day where everyone who wants a vaccine will get a vaccine (assuming 20% of people decline). In practice, it will take more days because some vaccines are used for second shots. Nevertheless, it is tremendously encouraging to see the progress. This schedule is ahead of even the most optimistic prediction at the beginning of the roll out.

Vaccine Dashboard
Vaccine Dashboard

San Francisco’s COVID vaccine effort continues at a brisk pace. Today, 56% of adults have already received at least one shot of vaccine. How much longer does it take to vaccinate 80% of adults? At the current pace of 12.6k vaccination per day, it will take 15 more days. April 26th is the earliest day where everyone who wants a vaccine will get a vaccine (assuming 20% of people decline). In practice, it will take more days because some vaccines are used for second shots. Nevertheless, it is tremendously encouraging to see the progress. This schedule is ahead of even the most optimistic prediction at the beginning of the roll out.

Therefore I am rather puzzled by the persistent reservation from a skeptic group of people. Some health experts, the media, and many concerned citizens seem to be uncomfortable with the idea that the pandemic, at least locally, is finally receding. They are nervous that the business and social restrictions will be relaxed. They raise alarm for a possible fourth wave, the threat of variants, and outbreak brought on by reopening too soon. For some reason, they tend to dismiss the vaccine success that I celebrated. The health authorities and media are reluctant. They say we don’t have enough vaccines. They say we have a supply problem.

This is misleading and false. If everyone demands vaccines today, there are not enough. But this is not what people are asking for. They just want to get in line to receive a vaccine in a predictable time frame. As I have shown, it only takes 15 more days at the earliest to vaccinate everyone who wants a vaccine. There is no supply problem I am aware of. Why do health authorities keep making caution statements that are not warranted? Why don’t they acknowledge and celebrate the success? Newsom and London Breed understand that there is a robust supply. Therefore they keep pushing the eligibility time frame more and more ahead. Why do the health authorities not see this?

Ironically, the retreat of the pandemic intimidates some people. They are used to and feel safe to remain in the isolated cocoon. It feels scary to mingle with people again.

The justification is usually that the risk remains here and we must be cautious. It is true that the assessment of the risk is subjective, with some people tend to be optimistic and some people tend to be pessimistic. Nevertheless, any reasonable argument must be constrained by objective basis. We criticized the Trump administration for denying evidence and downplaying the pandemic. In a similar manner, we should question the alarmists who make unwarranted cautions. Too little action is bad. However, excessive amounts of action are also bad. The proper action should be proportional to the risk, not too little, not too much.

Today the pandemic has not yet come to a definitive end. But, as you can see in the vaccination progress, change is coming fast. The skeptics believe they are rightly being cautious. But if they do not adjust their assessment as the situations change, this belief will quickly descend into superstition.

2021.04.11 comments

 

 

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