The COVID trend, in SF, California, and the US as a whole, is clearly heading down. In addition, vaccination is producing result. Vaccine production and vaccination rate is set to multiply in the coming weeks. My prediction is the COVID epidemic will recede definitively in just three months.
I will hold myself accountable for my prediction. At the beginning of June, I will evaluate the progress in the past three months, and if coronavirus indeed recedes definitively.
Ironically, people are not prepared for good news. We are trained to minimize risk by measures such as social distancing. It will take weeks and months to relax shutdown order and other restrictions. People’s minds might take even longer to change. The threat of COVID will remain in their consciousness despite it no longer being the case objectively.