tungwaiyip.info

home

about me

links

my software

Media

Yucatán Photos

St Lucia Photos

Photo Album

Videos

Blog

< September 2007 >
SuMoTuWeThFrSa
       1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30      

past articles »

Click for San Francisco, California Forecast

San Francisco, USA

 

Safe travel destinations?

When I am planning for travelling, especially to some more exotic destinations, the discussion is often steered toward the question - Is it safe? The underlying concern is the place maybe crime infested or perhaps an active target of terrorism. To the more experienced travellers this is often rejected as an undue concern. The standard rebuff is New York and LA has a higher crime rate than that of the destination.

Yet this question never goes away. People do not assess risk objectivity but base on some impression that can be very biased. Probability is such a thing that is hard for ordinary people to grasp rationally. In case of travelling, I find that the perceived risk is inversely proportional to the familiarity of the destination.

Consider New York, London, Madrid and Bali as examples. Each of them have subjected to multiple terrorist attacks. When Bali was bombed in 2002, some people discount it as an one-off incident. When it was bombed again in 2005, people are really scared and tourism plummeted. In case of New York and London, except the first few weeks after an incident, I have not heard anyone want to avoid them due to safety concern. Madrid sit somewhere in between. People perceive it as more risky than London but less risky than Bali. The perceived ranking or risk is roughly Bali > Madrid > London > New York.

Rather than base on any objective risk assessment, I think this is more a factor of familiarity. The ranking of familiarity for many outsiders are roughly New York > London > Madrid > Bali. Ask anyone in the world their impression on New York and London, they are likely to come up with hundreds of images - Statue of Liberty, Big Ben, multinational companies, the British royalties, celebrities and politicians, media and art references and their long and colorful history. This create an air of excitement that easily drown out the relative few violent incidents happened. On the other hand what do people know about Bali? Some superficial images of beach resorts and sightseeing spot? Unfortunately, for some people, the bomb attacks actually jump in front as their primary image of Bali. News of terrorism travel far and wide while domestic affairs receive little attention elsewhere. So the few incidents easily dominates outsiders' impression of the place.

The bottom line? Subjective risk is often very biased. The more familiarity you have with a place the less risk you will perceive.

2007.09.20 [] - comments

 

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

past articles »

 

BBC News

 

Doubts on Iran deal as deadline looms (23 Nov 2014)

 

Kenya bus gunmen 'want religious war' (22 Nov 2014)

 

Hamilton eyes 'biggest day of life' (22 Nov 2014)

 

Ex-Washington Mayor Marion Barry dies (23 Nov 2014)

 

Tunisia in landmark presidency poll (23 Nov 2014)

 

Flood warnings for US snowmelt (23 Nov 2014)

 

Albania opens huge Cold War bunker (22 Nov 2014)

 

Philippines remembers 2009 massacre (23 Nov 2014)

 

Foreign Office 'fails bereaved Britons' (23 Nov 2014)

 

Pilgrims flock to 16th-Century saint (22 Nov 2014)

more »

 

Slashdot News for nerds, stuff that matters

 

Samsung Seeking To Block Nvidia Chips From US Market (2014-11-23T00:05:00Z)

 

Doubling Saturated Fat In Diet Does Not Increase It In Blood (2014-11-22T23:44:00Z)

 

Ask Slashdot: Best Practices For Starting and Running a Software Shop? (2014-11-22T22:28:00Z)

 

Eizo Debuts Monitor With 1:1 Aspect Ratio (2014-11-22T21:17:00Z)

 

Upgrading the Turing Test: Lovelace 2.0 (2014-11-22T20:09:00Z)

 

Profanity-Laced Academic Paper Exposes Scam Journal (2014-11-22T18:58:00Z)

 

Ukraine's IT Brigade Supports the Troops (2014-11-22T17:50:00Z)

 

Extreme Shrimp May Hold Clues To Alien Life On Europa (2014-11-22T16:43:00Z)

more »

 

TechPsychic Tech Rumors and Invented News

more »

 

SF Gate

 

Bay Area News (7 Jan 2012)

 

City Insider (11 Feb 2012)

 

Crime Scene (13 Feb 2012)

 

C.W Newius Column (10 Jan 2012)

 

C.W. Nevius Blog (11 Feb 2012)

 

Education News (10 Jan 2012)

 

KALW (11 Feb 2012)

 

Matier and Ross Blog (11 Feb 2012)

 

Chromebooks beat iPads as top education device (22 Nov 2014)

 

Leaked transcript shows Geico’s stance against Uber, Lyft (22 Nov 2014)

 

Airbnb expo attracts company’s most loyal hosts (22 Nov 2014)

 

S.F. unemployment low, but still above dot-com days (22 Nov 2014)

 

Blighted harvest could drive up olive oil prices (22 Nov 2014)

 

Dish subscribers could miss Giants, A’s, Warriors, Sharks games (22 Nov 2014)

more »

 

Asia Times Online

 

SPENGLER Dumbing it away (Fri 21 Nov 2014 11:00:00 GMT)

 

THE ROVING EYE Washington plays Russian roulette (Fri 21 Nov 2014 11:00:00 GMT)

 

Iran takes center stage in East-West struggle (Fri 21 Nov 2014 11:00:00 GMT)

 

Western bloodlust and a third intifada (Fri 21 Nov 2014 11:00:00 GMT)

 

Mediate for peace in Kashmir (Fri 21 Nov 2014 11:00:00 GMT)

 

Hot money mocks Xi's 'rule of law' vow (Fri 21 Nov 2014 11:00:00 GMT)

more »

 


Site feed Updated: 2014-Nov-23 00:00